Showers and storms will once again develop across the area this afternoon. Some storms may produce locally heavy downpours and vivid lightning.
The next few days look similar, with very little change in the overall weather pattern. A daily chance of scattered showers and storms can be expected. With this pattern, some areas will get wet, while others may stay bone dry, and it's tough to pinpoint where storms will develop each day. However, the mountain ridges seem to be a common location as they help lift the air, triggering storm development.
A few things need to be monitored over the next several days in regards to a severe threat.
1) WEAK STEERING WINDS: There's nothing to push the storms along, so they will be slow-moving. This may lead to flash flooding, especially when the storms continue over the same areas.
2) MICROBURSTS: Dry air aloft may interact with developing storms and cause a quick rush of air out of storms. This may lead to very isolated damaging wind.
An approaching cold front will keep the chance of scattered storms around over the weekend. Sunday may turn out to be the stormier of the two days, so keep a close check of the weather if you have outdoor plans. While the front will bring storms, it will also usher in slightly cooler, but NOT less humid air next week. Weekend temperatures will reach the mid 80s, dropping to the low 80s next week.
GETTING TOO DRY
The U.S. Drought Monitor will be updated and released Thursday, but based on the lack of widespread rainfall over the past few weeks, the region continues to get drier and drier.
You can see it in the May rainfall totals. Most areas are 1" to 2" below average for the month.
While that may not seem dramatic, if we keep in this pattern, the region may start down the path of abnormally dry, and perhaps even drought as we get into the sporadic storms during the summer months.
Below are the rainfall totals for the year (left column) and the departures from normal (right column). The one obvious number that stands out is the rain deficit in Danville of 7"+ for 2015.
Unless significant rain falls over the Southside, this area would likely be the first to fall into the dry or drought designation.