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Karen forms; Tropical rain heads our way

By Brent Watts, bwatts@wdbj7.com
Published On: Oct 03 2013 12:00:00 AM EDT
Updated On: Oct 04 2013 03:38:26 AM EDT
Tropical Storm Karen

Tropical Storm Karen continues to be the focus of meteorologists along with those in her path. While the storm may not become a hurricane, the rain she'll bring will likely impact a large area from the Gulf of Mexico to the New England states.

TROPICAL RAIN TIMING

SATURDAY: The region remains ahead of the tropical moisture Saturday. While clouds will be on the increase, we don't expect any widespread showers. Most stay partly cloudy with highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid 50s.

SUNDAY: Tropical moisture from Karen will advance toward the region Sunday. Skies will become mostly cloudy with a few showers developing late in the afternoon. Overall, the daylight hours should remain dry. And steadier rain will hold off until late Sunday night. Highs 

SUNDAY NIGHT: Rain develops and becomes steady to moderate Sunday night as the tropical system moves closer.

MONDAY: Rain continues off and on Monday, and may be heavy at times, as the cold front takes the tropical system off toward the coast. 

Tropical Graphic 1

POSSIBLE TIMING

Based on the latest models, Saturday AND Sunday are looking mainly dry. Clouds will arrive late in the weekend and perhaps a few showers late Sunday. The bulk of the rain appears to hold off until late Sunday night and during the day Monday.

STORM RISKS

HEAVY RAIN: It's still much too early to know the extent of severe weather with this system, it's certainly smart to prepare for at least periods of heavy rain and the potential of flash flooding. The exact track and intensity will determine the local impacts. Rainfall totals may top 1.50" with locally higher amounts.

WIND: As the system weakens, wind won't be an issue. Gusts may reach 30mph, far below tropical storm strength. 

TORNADO: As with any land falling tropical system that is rotating, isolated tornadoes are a possibility. Tropical spin-up tornadoes aren't something easily predicted well in advance, so stay tuned.

Rain exits the region Tuesday with lingering showers. Cooler air follows behind the font and tropical system Wednesday with highs around 70s°.

Tropical Graphic 2

Even with our current rainfall deficit, we should always remember that tropical systems can often be unpredictable, and when interacting with the mountains of southwest Virginia, can producing flash flooding and river flooding. 

Visit our Hurricane Center for the latest tracks, and check back here on WDBJ7.com/Weather for updates during the week.